Break glass in case of emergency: The Los Angeles Lakers are good. Not just good, really good.
The departure of their “best player,” Anthony Davis, coincided with an unexpected but emphatic ascension to fourth place in the Western Conference, just 1.5 games behind the second-place Memphis Grizzlies.
They won 16 of their last 20 games, marking the best record in the league during that time. They took down the Boston Celtics, Golden State Warriors, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Denver Nuggets, Dallas Mavericks, and Minnesota Timberwolves all in the last five weeks.
The most frightening part about that? They can play much better than they are.
Time to get to know the bonafide championship contender Los Angeles Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers and valuing shooting
Pioneers such as Reggie Miller, Dirk Nowitzki, and Steph Curry taught the world about the importance of shooting.Â
Three points are obviously more than two. But the significance of that difference lies in their numeric substance since three is 150 percent of two.
That means that players can shoot far worse from three than they do from two and still produce a positive return.
Let’s look at the math behind that. Let’s say Team A shoots 37.8 percent from three, which would put them around the top five in most seasons.
This team would generate 113.4 points per 100 shot attempts, a nice return on investment.Â
Now, let’s say Team B shot 56 percent from the field. That would still be considered efficient and also rank around the top five, but it would generate just 112 points per 100 attempts.Â
The best teams have a balance between their two- and three-point shooting. Oftentimes, their three-point prowess creates perimeter gravity that stretches out opposing defenses and forces them to vacate the interior, which causes the offensive team’s two-point percentage to increase. Think of this as a rising tide raising all ships situation.
In the 2024-25 NBA season, the league averages are 35.8 on three-pointers and about 54.23 percent on two-pointers. That gives the two-point shot a slight lead at 108.46 points of value per 100 attempts compared to 107.4 points for three-pointers. However, the gap is almost negligible, and it means that basketball has evolved to a point in which shot distribution is almost redundant.
Why does this matter to the Los Angeles Lakers? Because they are playing at the highest level in the league while being nowhere near a balanced shooting efficiency.
Meat on the bone
Remember when we said the Los Angeles Lakers have the best record in the NBA over their last 20 games? Well, they only made 33.2 percent of their three-point attempts in the six games that Luka Doncic was on the floor. That’s partially because Luka himself only shot 22.4 percent from deep on 8.2 attempts per game, but it’s also a referendum on this Lakers team as a whole.
LA posted a +2.6 net rating with Doncic on the court and a +9.6 net rating since Jan. 15 with 14 of those games coming without Doncic (and almost 14 without Davis). They also shot 35.6 percent from three since the middle of January, which ranked in the middle of the league during that stretch and is right at their season average of 35.4 percent.
What’s the takeaway here?
The non-ball-dominant players get tons of open looks when sharing the floor with Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves. They just haven’t knocked down as many shots as they’d be expected to with such great creators on the floor.
This angle of Luka Doncic making one of the most special passes you’ll ever see in your life 🤯🤯🤯pic.twitter.com/TGmMh4UcWD
— Hot Hand Theory (@HotHandTheory) February 26, 2025
With Luka now in the fold, the team’s shooting efficiency will take a hit because of the number of contested threes the Slovenian takes. Still, a regression to the mean would give LA another 6.6 points per 100 attempts ((35.4 – 33.2) * 3).
That’s assuming they don’t improve beyond their season standard, which also isn’t a safe assumption given the amount of pressure the James-Doncic-Reaves trio puts on opposing defenses.
Evidence of that can be found in Doncic’s time with the Mavericks, who ranked second in open three-point attempts, defined as shots in which the nearest defender is 4-6 feet away, in 2022-23 and 2023-24.
Since he played his final game for the franchise on Dec. 25, 2024, the Mavericks are only 19th in “open” three-point attempts per game.
What’s the takeaway?
If we operate under the assumption that the Luka Doncic we’ve seen in the City of Angels is causing the Lakers to underperform their three-point expectancy by 6.6 points per 100 attempts, they should be entitled to another 2.3 points per game. That’s based on their average of 34.8 three-point attempts and 98.9 possessions per game.
What difference does 2.3 points make? Quite a lot.
Top-six seeds in both conferences (excluding the Lakers) outscored their opponents by an average of 5.4 points per 100 possessions. That means those 2.3 points are close to half (42.6 percent) of the average point differential per 100 possessions of playoff teams.
The Lakers posted an average net rating of +7.5 in games with Doncic, which, with our 2.3-point addition, would rise to +9.8.
A +9.8 net rating would rank third in the league behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder (+12.6) and Cleveland Cavaliers (+11.3).
Sample size is a factor here since Doncic has only played six games. Three of them were against bottom feeders (Utah Jazz twice, Charlotte Hornets), two were against teams that made the Western Conference Finals last year (Timberwolves and Mavericks), and one was against a championship contender (Nuggets).
But while there might be slim pickings for data, it’s obvious that the Lakers can shoot the ball better than they have. And that’s what could make them unstoppable.
Defense wins championships
The unsung hero in the Lakers’ surge is not a player, but a first-time head coach, JJ Redick. His ability to adapt to losing a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate and find success playing small-ball lineups is the biggest reason for LA’s blazing-hot form.
Going back to their last 20 games, the Lakers’ 107.4 defensive rating is the lowest mark by 1.7 points. Their 109.4 defensive rating with Doncic would rank just ahead of the Celtics for fifth on the year, while Doncic has an individual 107.3 defensive rating during his minutes.
Redick’s magnum opus thus far was his defensive game plan against Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets. His philosophy involved key principles that included:
- Fronting Jokic under the free-throw line to deny the pass
- Doubling Jokic when he got the ball under the free-throw line
- Sagging off of poor shooters, specifically above the break
- Active hands in the passing lanes
- Multiple eyes on Jokic even when he was off the ball
The result? Jokic finished with 12 points (2-7 FG), 13 rebounds, 10 assists, and six turnovers in a 23-point loss at home.
His 12 points were the fewest he scored in a game in which he played at least 30 minutes since March 7, 2020, and his seven shot attempts were the fewest in a game in which he played at least 30 minutes since January 9, 2023.
LA’s most impactful defender has been December trade acquisition Dorian Finney-Smith, who helped hold teams to 8.5 fewer points per 100 possessions when he was on the court compared to when he was on the bench. That ranks in the 98th percentile among wing players.
Despite only averaging 6.5 points per game, Finney-Smith also leads the team in offensive on/off efficiency (+7.1 points per 100 possessions), giving him a personal +15.7 net rating that is also in the 98th percentile among wings.
Los Angeles Lakers NBA Finals odds
The Lakers’ strong play has seen them rise to fifth in NBA Finals odds at +1800, according to FanDuel sportsbook.
They’re also third in odds to win the West at +800, trailing only the Thunder (-130) and Nuggets (+500). Those teams have NBA Finals odds of +200 and +1300, respectively.
The Lake Show won’t face the Thunder for the second and third time this season until they play on April 6 and 8. They lost their only previous matchup on Nov. 29, 101-93.
LA has a brutal stretch of games approaching. They have to play 10 games in 14 days and will face the Clippers, Knicks, Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks (twice), Nuggets (twice), Suns, Pacers, Grizzlies, and Rockets before the end of March.
Depending on what happens around the league on Friday night, they could move within a half-game of the second seed.
