Free Agency, NFL Draft, Trade Season: How Are Super Bowl Teams Built?

The NFL free agency window will open on March 12, resurfacing an age-old question as to what is most important when constructing a team destined for the Super Bowl: free agency, the NFL Draft, or executing trades. 

The widespread proliferation of talent and changes in coaching philosophy have changed the way the game is analyzed compared to just a decade ago. Teams are more willing to go all-in with their young quarterbacks and often value versatility and potential just as much as incontrovertible production.

Even amid the league’s evolution, stark contrasts exist at the top level. The “F them picks” Los Angeles Rams captured a Lombardi Trophy with reckless regard for the future, the dynastic New England Patriots routinely got the most out of their role players, and the Kansas City Chiefs found success both with a bombs-away offense and, a few years later, a strong defensive mindset.

Simply put, there is no cookie-cutter approach to handling free agency, the draft, or any other time period to build a Super Bowl team. However, there are commonalities and trends that front offices would be wise to heed as they aim to dominate the present. 

Allow me to answer the question as to what is more important for Super Bowl hopefuls, the NFL Draft, free agency, or player trades. Here we go.

Is the Super Bowl won in free agency?

I have to start by saying that this is not a foolproof method to determine which team will reign supreme throughout the upcoming offseasons. Don’t shoot the messenger if your team does exactly what the data suggests and falls on its face.

According to AI-aggregated data, the last 10 Super Bowl champions’ starting rosters were composed of an average:

• 12.6 (57.3 percent) in-house draft picks
• 6.9 (31.4 percent) free-agent signings
• 2.5 (11.4 percent) trade acquisitions.
  

League data for all teams from the 2015-16 to 2023-24 seasons painted a different picture that included averages of:

• 11.8 (53.6 percent) in-house draft picks
• 8.0 (36.4 percent) free-agent signings
• 2.2 (10 percent) trade acquisitions

Quarterbacks (65.6 percent), tight ends (65.6 percent), and offensive linemen (61.3 percent) represented the highest percentage of in-house draft selections. Defensive players were often acquired through free agency, while cornerbacks were traded more than any other position group (12.5 percent).

The Green Bay Packers (70.9 percent), Dallas Cowboys (67.7 percent), and Pittsburgh Steelers (66.4 percent) started the highest average number of draft picks during that stretch.

The Cleveland Browns (46.4 percent), Jacksonville Jaguars (44.1 percent), and New York Jets (44.1 percent) relied more heavily on free agents to fill out their starting roster.

The Los Angeles Rams were by far the most aggressive team on the trade market with an average of 14.5 percent of their starters coming directly through trades.

All in all, the data shows that Super Bowl champions had average margins relative to the rest of the league of:

• +3.7 percent in-house draft picks
• -5 percent free-agent signings
• +0.3 percent trade acquisitions 

What we learned

The biggest takeaway from this data is that teams who find contributors in the draft often find more success overall. That’s proven not only by the 3.7 percent disparity between Super Bowl champions and the league average in homegrown talent, but also by the teams at the extremes for most and fewest in-house starting draft picks.

The Packers, Cowboys, and Steelers won an average of 9.8 games per season and all ranked in the top nine for wins during that period.

The Jets and Jags tied for the fewest wins and the Browns tied for the third-fewest wins during that same period. They averaged a combined 5.8 wins per season, or 40.8 percent fewer than the three teams that were the most loyal to their draft picks.

It’s also noteworthy that the Super Bowl champion with the most in-house draft pick starters from our 10-year window was the most recent victor, the Philadelphia Eagles, who started 16 of “their guys” in the Big Game compared to three free agents and three trade acquisitions. 

All but two of the last 10 Super Bowl champions had at least two trade acquisitions starting for them, but only one had more than three. That shows there’s credence to being “selectively aggressive” and securing pieces like A.J. Brown and Rob Gronkowski to take a team over the top.

Seven of the last 10 Super Bowl champs also started eight or fewer free agent signings, while half started six or fewer. Those teams usually also had greater success in the draft.

Final thoughts

All things considered, teams that want to win the Super Bowl should focus the least on free agency and the most on the NFL Draft. They must also be willing to take swings to acquire key players at important positions, but within reason—unless they are the LA Rams.

I also performed an analysis of where the best, worst, and most average teams in the league allocated their dollars among different position groups. I won’t spoil those results, but they, in conjunction with this analysis, provide a framework for building a strong team.

Whether or not a team’s scouts and general manager have the football acumen to discern strong NFL prospects from wanna-be’s is a confounding variable here, but who cares? Splash the cash for the best scouts in the business, because I just proved their job is among the most important in an entire organization.

Build through the draft. Supplement in free agency. Swing big very few times on the trade market. Boom, you’ve got a Super Bowl champion.