March Madness is back with the Sweet 16 on Friday, and I’ve spent hours combing through data and formulating my best bets so that you don’t have to.
Rarely does a scenario with two options, win or lose, create a labyrinth of feelings like the Sweet 16 does year in and year out. Friday’s matchups feature two of the top teams in the country, Houston and Auburn, familiar blue-blood programs, and a couple of the hottest teams in America.
Ride with me as we explore the best bets in the Sweet 16 on Friday.
Here we go.
March Madness bets: Favorite picks for the Sweet 16 on Friday
*All odds from FanDuel sportsbook*
Ole Miss vs. Michigan State (-3.5) Sweet 16 picks
Ole Miss and Arkansas were the only teams to win outright as underdogs in the Round of 64 and Round of 32. The former finds itself counted out yet again and is trying to become the 16th team since 1985 to score its first three outright tournament wins as an underdog.
The Rebels were only 3-5 down the stretch of the regular season, yet they beat North Carolina by seven and Iowa State by 13 points to start the bracket. Their demolition job against UNC almost came to live in infamy as the Tar Heels closed an 18-point halftime deficit to two points with 1:09 remaining, only for Sean Pedulla to bury a dagger three-pointer.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that Ole Miss is playing its best basketball of the year. It shot 56-99 (56.6 percent) from the field and 19-39 (48.7 percent) from three, outperforming its season averages by 12.4 and 14.6 percent.
While these shooting splits are almost assuredly unsustainable, winning in March is not. Coach Chris Beard is 12-6 (66.7 percent) against the spread since his 2016 tournament debut.
Beard’s tournament teams are also 8-1 ATS (88.9 percent) with at least three days of rest.
KenPom ranked Mississippi 24th in offensive and 21st in defensive rating, making it one of the most balanced teams in the field. However, its 21st overall ranking is the third-lowest of any remaining team and only ahead of BYU and Arkansas.
The Rebels faced a plethora of ranked opponents this year and went 3-9 in those games. However, only two of those losses came by more than 10 points and four were by five or fewer points. They also had standout wins against No. 4 Alabama and No. 4 Tennessee.
On the other side, Michigan State is back in the Sweet 16 for only the second time since the 2014-15 season. Notably, they lost to Kansas State in overtime when they reached this round two years ago.
The Spartans were arguably the hottest team in America toward the end of the regular season, claiming wins over No. 13 Purdue, No. 12 Michigan, No. 16 Maryland, No. 11 Wisconsin, No. 17 Michigan, and No. 23 Oregon as part of an eight-game winning streak.
They then lost to Wisconsin in the Big 12 Tournament, only had a five-point halftime lead against Bryant, and beat New Mexico by eight points despite doubling them up in fouls (11 to 22).
The Spartans are tough on defense and allowed the lowest three-point percentage (27.8) to their opponents. Their perimeter defense is paramount in their success seeing as they only shot 30.8 percent from deep for the year and 34.1 percent in the tournament, including a 4-15 (26.7 percent) showing in their last game.
While MSU is second in the country in rebound rate, Ole Miss is a deplorable 318th.
Tom Izzo is 44-9 (83 percent) SU and 32-19-2 (63.5 percent) ATS when listed as a favorite in March Madness games. His teams also covered four in a row over the last three tournaments.
My belief is that Ole Miss is the worst team left in the field. Inevitable regression to the mean related to their perimeter shooting combined with the Spartans’ dominance on the glass and efficient two-point scoring puts them at the center of one of my best Sweet 16 Friday bets.
Ole Miss vs. Michigan State pick: Michigan State -3.5 (-115)
Kentucky vs. Tennessee (-4.5) March Madness bets
Mark Pope is trying to do the same thing he did as a player in 1996—win a national championship at Kentucky.
The former BYU coach and first-time Lexington resident has Kentucky in the tournament in unprecedented style. Whereas the worst record by a three seed in March Madness history belonged to 2017 Florida State (25-8), Kentucky was awarded with a three seed despite going 22-11.
The Wildcats are average on the glass, elite on offense, and poor on defense. Guard Otega Oweh (16.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg) paces a team that shot 48.2 percent from the floor, 37.4 percent from three, and 73.8 percent at the line.
Kentucky opened its tournament with a comfortable 76-57 win against Troy and then beat Illinois 84-75. Koby Brea stepped up big in both games and leads his team in tournament scoring at 18 points per game.
This is the 14th time in the last 20 years that conference opponents met in the Sweet 16. Underdogs went 8-5 ATS (61.5 percent) while the over went 11-2 (84.6 percent) in those games.
Kentucky is also 2-0 both SU and ATS against Tennessee this season, beating them 78-73 in Knoxville on Jan. 28 and 75-64 at home on Feb.11. They shot exactly 50 percent from the field and 50 percent from three in both of those games.
For reference, Tennessee’s elite defense held opponents to a nation-leading 38.2 percent from the floor and 28.3 percent from three (third).
That precedent spells trouble, particularly because of coach Rick Barnes’ troubled past. The former Providence, Clemson and Texas man is 23-37 (38.3 percent) ATS in the NCAA Tournament and 6-18 (25 percent) ATS since 2010.
That makes it even more intriguing that Kentucky is the first team in March Madness history to go 2-0 against a conference opponent, both times as an underdog, and still be an underdog in their tournament matchup.
The Volunteers opened their bracket with a 77-62 win against Wofford and then took down a hot UCLA team 67-58. Chaz Lanier averaged 24.5 points on 55.6 percent three-point shooting in those games to lead his team.
UT’s offense relies heavily on Lanier (18.1 ppg) and Zakai Zeigler (13.7 ppg, 7.4 apg), and despite ranking sixth in points allowed per game (62.9), they’re only 185th in turnovers forced per game. That limits their ability to get “cheap” points if their shots aren’t falling.
With all that said, Round of 32 favorites are 41-13 (75.9 percent) SU against Round of 32 underdogs.
Favorites are also 47-19 (71.2 percent) SU against teams who shot at least 47 percent in the Round of 32 and 32-10 (76.2 percent) against teams who covered by at least eight points in the Round of 32.
It’s tough to beat a team three times in one season, especially a conference opponent.
Kentucky found great success in its tournament games and against UT’s defense, while Tennessee was atypically terrible shooting the ball in its losses to the Wildcats. Both teams know what each other wants to do and have their best players playing well.
Mark it down. One of my favorite Sweet 16 bets for this game is…
Kentucky vs. Tennessee pick: Over 144.5 (-112)
Michigan vs. Auburn (-9.5) Sweet 16 bets picks
A three-game skid late in the season, one of those an annihilation at the hands of Michigan State, made it seem as if the Wolverines weren’t ready for the postseason. Those thoughts were quickly put to bed when they won the Big Ten Tournament with wins over Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin.
While Big Ten winners previously struggled in the Big Dance, UM beat 30-4 UC San Diego by three points in the first round and took down Texas A&M in the Round of 32, 91-79.
Michigan only shot 15-49 (30.6 percent) from three thus far. It found success creating margins on the glass as it racked up 30 offensive rebounds in just those two games.
The Wolverines are one of the most unique teams in the country in that they will run pick-and-roll with their two big men, Danny Wolf and Vladislav Golden, who just scored a career-high 23 points against A&M.
UM loves to dance with the devil. They had 14 games decided by three or fewer points and went 8-6 in those, meaning they are not a merchant of fortunate luck.
The double-7-footer frontcourt with Wolf and Golden allowed Michigan to hold its opponents to 46 percent two-point shooting, the third-lowest of any remaining team (Duke and Houston). That said, they were 179th in made threes allowed per game.
Auburn had a scare against Creighton in the Round of 32 but rebounded from a two-point halftime deficit to win, 82-70. That’s after they beat Alabama State, 83-63, in the Round of 64.
The Tigers shot the ball well and dominated the boards against Creighton. That’s despite leading scorer Johni Broome (18.4 ppg, 10.7 rpg) only managing eight on 30.8 percent shooting and averaging 11 points per game in the tournament.
Broome’s team will need him to get going if they want to have a chance at a deep tournament run, though he will find it difficult against Wolf and Golden.
This is the first time in six trips that Bruce Pearl has been favored in the Sweet 16. His teams are 12-8 (60 percent) SU with extended rest and 5-10-1 (33.3 percent) ATS when his teams have a seed advantage. They’re also 6-0 SU and 5-1 (83.3 percent) ATS in six games against Big Ten opponents since 2020.
Despite being 30-5, there are questions about Auburn’s ability to win close games. They’re 3-3 in games decided by less than 10 points over the last two months, with those losses coming against No. 6 Florida, No. 7 Alabama, and No. 8 Tennessee.
Several of the precedent-based trends, such as favorites against teams who shot 47 percent from the field in the Round of 32, favor Auburn. I’m most interested to see how Auburn’s defensive rebounding holds up against Wolf and Golden, who have created tons of second-chance opportunities for a team that is average from three but thrives near the restricted area.
While Pearl is a solid coach, he’s yet to prove himself in the tournament. Dusty May got Florida Atlantic to the Final Four and won a conference title with Michigan in the first time of asking, and I believe he can conjure up a scheme to keep this game within single digits as one of my best Sweet 16 bets on Friday.
Michigan vs. Auburn pick: Michigan +9.5 (-118)
Purdue vs. Houston (-7.5) March Madness picks
The Cougars won a thriller against Gonzaga that could have easily been a Final Four showdown, 81-76, after they throttled SIU-Edwardsville in the first round, 78-40.
Houston is a mainstay in the second week of March Madness. The difference this time around is they were tested and proven in the regular season as they went 19-1 against the Big 12 en route to a conference tournament title.
The Coogs won 15 straight games, and their only losses came by one, three, five, and five points.
Not only do they have their trademark terrifying defense and relentless activity on the boards, but they also shot the highest three-point percentage (39.8) in the nation. There was no sign of that slowing down against Houston as they went 8-16 from deep, powered by L.J. Cryer going 6-11 (54.5 percent) en route to 30 points.
Inserting my personal bias here, I said before the tournament started that the winner of Gonzaga and Houston had an easy ticket to the Final Four, and potentially the championship game.
I’ve seen nothing to lead me to believe that Houston isn’t the best team in its region.
That said, Kelvin Sampson has had his share of woes in the later rounds of the NCAA Tournament. He’s 11-7 (61.1 percent) ATS in the first week of action and 2-6 (25 percent) ATS beyond that.
Luckily, Houston is 84-60-1 (58.3 percent) ATS with at least four days of rest under Sampson.
There’s also been a refocusing period for Houston after defensive slips. The under is 13-4 (76.5 percent) and the team is 14-3 (82.4 percent) SU since 2021 in games immediately after they allowed 70 or more points to their opponents.
The biggest point of concern for Purdue is on the glass. Houston is 40th to Purdue’s 222nd in defensive rebound percentage and 11th to their 108th in offensive rebound percentage.
Switching gears, Purdue beat High Point 75-63 in the opener and McNeese 76-62 in the Round of 32. While they met the bottom line of winning games, they let High Point stick around for too long, and neither team was a quality opponent.
The Boilermakers also lost six of their final nine games in the regular season, meaning that a win here would be totally out of left field.
Purdue’s best player is Trey Kaufman-Renn, an old-school back-to-the-basket interior player who averaged 20.3 points per game. Braden Smith (16 ppg, 8.5 apg) sets the table and is a major reason why the team shot 38.5 percent from three.
The two teams allowed nearly the exact same three-point percentage, but Houston’s interior defense was leaps and bounds ahead. They ranked fifth with a 44.3 two-point percentage allowed, while Purdue was 341st of 364 teams at 56.2 percent.
Two-point is the only real weakness the Cougars have, and Purdue’s weakness there may let them off the hook.
Purdue joins a list of seven teams who were underdogs of at least seven points while playing in their home state in the Sweet 16. Those teams were 3-4 ATS and did not cover the spread once.
It’s close to impossible to imagine Houston losing this game. My best Sweet 16 Friday bets for this game are under 131.5 total points and my favorite bet of…
Purdue vs. Houston pick: Houston -7.5 (-110)
