How could drafting Travis Hunter, seemingly a can’t-miss prospect with a floor of the fourth pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, be a mistake? It has nothing to do with him being a bust or his overall ability…
Allow me to be very clear: nothing I am about to say has anything to do with Hunter’s physical abilities, skill, or mentality. He is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, a one-of-one player, and the mold of a Hall of Famer.
Instead, the grounds for Hunter’s potentially futile future have everything to do with his distinctiveness and the pressure that will be put on his front office.
According to NFL Draft betting odds, Hunter has an 85.7 percent implied chance to call the Cleveland Browns his next team. He also has a 20 percent chance to land with the New York Giants, though neither one of those teams will be accused of having elite minds directing their organization.
With the overwhelming likelihood that Hunter will go to a dysfunctional franchise, here’s why his NFL career could prove to be nothing short of disastrous for reasons totally out of his control.
Will Travis Hunter play both ways?
Hunter has been extremely clear with his ambition to play offense and defense in the NFL, the likes of which haven’t been seen on a consistent basis since Deion Sanders. Troy Brown switched from wide receiver to cornerback for the New England Patriots in 2004, though he only caught 17 balls that season.
J.J. Watt, Mike Vrabel, Walter Perry, and other defensive stars filled in on offense in the red-zone or 4th-down situations but were never full-time two-way guys.
“Because I’ve been doing it (playing both ways) my whole life, and I love being on the football field,” Hunter said when asked why he wanted to continue playing offense and defense. “I feel like I could dominate on each side of the ball, so I really enjoy doing it.”
Hunter logged 713 offensive and 748 defensive snaps for Colorado last year. That made him the first player since 1976 with at least 500 receiving yards and four interceptions in one season, per ESPN Research.
Remarkably, those numbers still don’t do him justice. He finished the year with 96 receptions for 1,258 yards and 15 touchdowns, ran the ball twice for five yards and a score, and had 35 tackles, 11 pass break-ups, four interceptions, and a forced fumble.
With a resume like that, it’s no wonder he’s been called the best corner and the best receiver in the draft. Most rankings have him in competition with:
Cornerback
- Will Johnson (Michigan)
- Jahdae Barron (Texas)
- Benjamin Morrison (Notre Dame)
Wide receiver
- Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona)
- Matthew Golden (Texas)
- Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
How good is Travis Hunter?
For the rest of this exercise, we’re going to assume that Hunter plays about 75 percent of offensive and defensive snaps at or near a Pro Bowl level. That would place him slightly behind the usual percentage of plays for star players and near the median of what many believe is his pro potential.
We’re also going to pretend that inflation/a rising salary cap doesn’t exist.
One of the primary reasons that drafting Hunter is being referred to as a “steal” is that a team would get two players for the price of one. That would only hold true until payday at the end of his first contract when he would enter an unprecedented contract negotiation.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has the highest average annual value (AAV) of any non-quarterback at $40.3 million. Browns defensive end Myles Garrett leads all defensive players at $40 million, and Houston Texans corner Derek Stingley Jr. leads all players at the position with a $30 million AVV.
Assuming Hunter is in contention for Pro Bowls as we mentioned, that would make him about the eighth-best receiver and corner in the league. Those contracts belong to Tyreek Hill ($30 million AAV) and Marshon Lattimore ($19.5 million AAV).
Simply combining those contracts would equal a potential $49.5 million AAV contract for Hunter after his rookie deal, a contract which would make him far and away the league’s highest-paid defensive player (keeping in mind he’d play both ways).
Unlike other defenders, Hunter would have even more leverage over his team since losing him would count the same as losing stars on both sides of the ball. Imagine if the Philadelphia Eagles couldn’t come to terms with Quinyon Mitchell, so they also lost A.J. Brown.
This part is pure speculation, but let’s say Hunter demanded an extra $10 million per year—$5 million for offense and defense.
That would bring his contract to nearly $60 million per year in annual value, the second-highest in the league behind only Dak Prescott. And it’s hard to say that would be unreasonable, considering how punitive it would be for a team to lose his services.
The devil in the financial details
The Houston Texans ($54.3 million), Miami Dolphins ($54.1 million), and Dallas Cowboys ($53.4 million) spent more money on their top-paid cornerback and receiver than all other teams.
For their efforts, those teams last year were rewarded with one playoff berth, one playoff win, and an average record of 8-9.
Only three of the top 10 spenders made the postseason at all. Those teams were the Texans, Detroit Lions, and Minnesota Vikings.
| WR (in millions) | CB (in millions) | TOTAL (in millions) | |
| ARI | $8.80 | $8.50 | $17.30 |
| ATL | $13.00 | $20.30 | $33.30 |
| BAL | $6.40 | $19.50 | $25.90 |
| BUF | $13.30 | $17.30 | $30.60 |
| CAR | $8.50 | $25.00 | $33.50 |
| CHI | $27.50 | $19.00 | $46.50 |
| CIN | $40.30 | $2.90 | $43.20 |
| CLE | $17.50 | $20.10 | $37.60 |
| DAL | $34.00 | $19.40 | $53.40 |
| DEN | $15.20 | $24.00 | $39.20 |
| DET | $30.00 | $16.00 | $46.00 |
| GB | $2.30 | $21.00 | $23.30 |
| HOU | $24.30 | $30.00 | $54.30 |
| IND | $23.30 | $18.00 | $41.30 |
| JAX | $13.00 | $19.10 | $32.10 |
| KC | $7.00 | $10.00 | $17.00 |
| LV | $11.00 | $3.50 | $14.50 |
| LAC | $3.60 | $6.50 | $10.10 |
| LAR | $22.00 | $7.50 | $29.50 |
| MIA | $30.00 | $24.10 | $54.10 |
| MIN | $35.00 | $18.00 | $53.00 |
| NE | $21.20 | $18.00 | $39.20 |
| NO | $6.50 | $3.00 | $9.50 |
| NYG | $12.00 | $18.00 | $30.00 |
| NYJ | $11.00 | $12.00 | $23.00 |
| PHI | $32.00 | $3.70 | $35.70 |
| PIT | $33.00 | $10.00 | $43.00 |
| SF | $30.00 | $17.80 | $47.80 |
| SEA | $15.00 | $8.00 | $23.00 |
| TB | $22.00 | $13.00 | $35.00 |
| TEN | $23.00 | $19.10 | $42.10 |
| WSH | $22.30 | $19.50 | $41.80 |
Hunter’s projected AAV of $49.5 million without the two-way surcharge would put his future team fifth on the list of highest corner-plus-receiver spenders. With the $10 million fee and $59.5 million AAV, they would be $5.2 million (9.6 percent) clear of the currently-leading Texans.
Why is drafting Travis Hunter a mistake?
Why is this so significant?
No, it’s not that Hunter shouldn’t be paid, or that he isn’t just as valuable as Deion Sanders has said for the past few years. It’s that he might be… too good for his own (team’s) good.
It’s close to impossible for teams to spend top dollar at multiple non-quarterback positions and be perennially competitive, much less bonafide contenders. The Browns’ and Giants’ history of draft-botching and poor recruitment make those prospects even less likely.
In the world in which Hunter receives his mega-contract, his team would likely need to compete for a championship with a quarterback on a rookie contract. That’s hard enough to accomplish and also depends on savvy draft-day decision-making and offseason posturing by the general manager.
In many ways, Hunter’s most likely NFL path might be that of a mercenary who goes to a team that hits on their quarterback pick, has future draft capital to offload, and is willing to swap that to help push them over the top during a two-three-year competitive window.
Is Drafting Travis Hunter REALLY a mistake?
Look, I’m not saying this is going to happen. But one way to prevent the “mistake” of drafting Travis Hunter could be to also take his former teammate, Shedeur Sanders.
The top of this draft class is not stacked with talent. The Texans had the second pick and moved up to make the third selection two years ago, so it wouldn’t be without precedent for the Browns or Giants to sneak back in at, say, the eighth spot to nip the New Orleans Saints and take Sanders.
The other possibility is for those teams to play this season out, stink, and double back for a top prospect in a quarterback-rich draft next year. That feels more likely for the Browns than the Giants, who have the much better QB option with Russell Wilson.
To put a bow on this, Travis Hunter is a generational prospect, and drafting him is not a mistake in and of itself. The issue is that, just like Albert Einstein said he couldn’t solve the problems of his generation because the technology hadn’t evolved enough, Hunter might be too productive for his team to build around him.
A weird problem to have? Absolutely. But a problem nonetheless… I’ll wait for you tell me that you have the confidence in the Browns’ and Giants’ front offices to figure that out.
