Karl-Anthony Towns is the target of one of my favorite bets of the NBA Playoffs as the New York Knicks prepare to take on the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Why, you might ask? A combination of simple logic, reading between the lines, and analyzing sportsbook betting odds.
Walk with me as we discover why Karl-Anthony Towns is the best player to drop some bets on over the next couple of weeks.
Best Knicks vs. Pacers bets: Karl-Anthony Towns most points scored (+600)
Drum roll, please…
I am planting my flag here and saying that Karl-Anthony Towns to lead the Knicks vs. Pacers Eastern Conference Finals in points scored is one of my top bets of the NBA Playoffs.
FanDuel and BetMGM offered their odds at +600 each, which translates to a 14.3 percent implied chance. That’s significant since DraftKings has him as low as +340 (22.7 percent implied chance) as of Monday, May 19.
Do they know something the others don’t, or are they just being cheap? Only time will tell.
Before we dive in any further, let’s look at the top scorers in the series based on their regular-season averages.
- Jalen Brunson – 26.0 PPG
- Karl-Anthony Towns – 24.4 PPG
- Pascal Siakam – 20.2 PPG
- Tyrese Haluburton – 18.6 PPG
- OG Anunoby – 18.0 PPG
- Mikal Bridges – 17.6 PPG
- Myles Turner – 15.6 PPG
Now, let’s look at their playoff averages.
- Brunson – 28.8 PPG
- Towns – 19.8 PPG
- Siakam – 18.8 PPG
- Haliburton – 17.5 PPG
- Turner – 16.5 PPG
- Anunoby – 15.8 PPG
- Bridges – 15.4 PPG
And finally, their averages in their head-to-head regular-season matchups.
- Towns – 30.3 PPG
- Bennedict Mathurin – 25.3 PPG
- Brunson – 22.3 PPG
- Josh Hart – 22.0 PPG
- Turner – 19.5 PPG
- Anunoby – 19.5 PPG
- Haliburton – 17.7 PPG
- Siakam – 16.7 PPG
- Bridges – 11.7 PPG
The Pacers’ defensive limitations
The current iteration of the Pacers has long had problems defending against talented and imposing big men. Since the beginning of the 2022-23 NBA season, they have allowed gaudy stats to all of the following interior players:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 36.3 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 6.7 APG, 65.4 FG%
- Joel Embiid – 31.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.7 APG, 55.4 FG%
- Nikola Jokic – 27.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 11.4 APG, 62.6 FG%
- Alperen Sengun – 21.8 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 4.5 APG, 54.6 FG%
- Domantas Sabonis – 19.2 PPG, 14.2 RPG, 5.7 APG, 52.2 FG%
- Ivica Zubac – 17.3 PPG, 14.0 RPG, 71 FG%
Towns is not an outlier in this dataset. In five matchups during the time frame, he averaged 30.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists on 59.6 percent shooting from the field, 52.6 percent from three, and 90.5 percent at the charity stripe.
Those numbers are near-perfect reflections of his three matchups with the Pacers this season. He averaged 30.3 points and 12.0 rebounds on 56.6 percent shooting from the field, 46.7 percent from three, and 88.9 percent from the free-throw line.
One of the biggest reasons for Towns’ improved scoring was his success getting to the rim. He shot 69.2 percent on 4.3 field goal attempts resulting from 7.7 drives per game, 15.5 percent higher than his overall average (52.7 percent).
Why is this even more relevant today? The Pacers allowed the second-highest field goal percentage on opponents’ drives (52.5) during the regular season and, against two injured playoff opponents, gave up a middling 49.6 percent.
Let’s take it a step further—Antetokounmpo shot 77.1 percent on drives in the first round, and the Cleveland Cavaliers, Indy’s next opponent, led the second round in field goal percentage on drives. For context, the Knicks were at 50.5 percent during the regular season and 48.2 percent in the playoffs.
There’s clearly space at the rim for the Pacers’ opponents.
The advantage for Karl-Anthony Towns bets
Myles Turner would be the natural matchup for Towns. Turner is known as a great shot-blocker and allowed a low 63.6 percent on shots in the restricted area in the regular season, but he finds lots of success as a switch defender or helping from the weak side.
Turner’s defensive reputation is well-earned because of his quick feet and instincts, but he doesn’t have the strength or brawn to slow down elite, obtrusive opponents, as evidenced by the performances of superstar interior players whenever they face the Pacers.
Proof of Turner’s diminishing returns against Towns can also be seen in his team’s defensive percentages. The Pacers allowed Towns to shoot 70 percent in the restricted area and 53.3 percent in the unrestricted area of the paint, which were 3.1 and 8.1 percent higher than Towns’ yearly standards.
Turner also let the Knicks shoot 59.4 percent in the paint during their matchups, three percentage points higher than his season average of 56.4 percent, and one point above the Knicks’ standard of 58.4 percent.
Yeah, yeah… but what about Brunson?
There’s no doubt that Knicks’ PG, the out-and-out favorite in this market, is a viable threat. He scored 26 and 33 points in the first two matchups with Indy before he only managed eight in 23 minutes in the third, largely due to foul trouble. He also has a near-monopoly on the playmaking duties for his squad and averaged 22.3 field goal attempts per game to Towns’ 15.3.
The question is whether Towns’ efficiency can overcome the noticeable gap in volume.
Knicks vs. Pacers bets and preview
I believe that the Pacers will have Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith chase Brunson over the screen to funnel him into Turner, who, as previously mentioned, is a great shot-blocker.
That will put pressure on Turner to be closer to the level or the dreaded no-man’s land, since he can’t afford to be in a drop and give Brunson license to take the floater or go to work with a hostage dribble. Essentially, he can’t play airtight defense on Towns if the Pacers are going to avoid switching.
Towns notably averaged 1.25 points per possession as the roll man in the pick-and-roll, which ranked fourth among qualified players with at least three of these possessions per game. Turner and Siakam, Indy’s interior players, also allowed unimpressive marks of 1.11 and 1.15 points per possession when defending these actions in the regular season.
In the event that the Pacers opt to switch the pick-and-roll, they’ll leave undersized players guarding Towns, who did a great job of sealing defenders deep in the paint and attacking mismatches off the dribble during their previous encounters.
The Pacers were also 20th in points allowed per possession involving a post-up and 26th in points allowed per isolation possession—both of which could be used to highlight Towns on a mismatch—despite being 14th in defensive rating during the regular season.
Karl-Anthony Towns attacking the rim
Averages in three games vs Pacers:
30.3 PPG
12.0 RPG
56.6 FG%
46.7 3PT%Shot 69.2% on drives#NewYorkForever pic.twitter.com/RZDKHd6jlW
— Grant Mitchell (@milemitchell) May 19, 2025
The bottom line is this: I can’t guarantee that Towns will cash this bet. At the end of the day, sportsbooks believe that it has less than a one-in-four chance at best to hit.
What I can guarantee, however, is that there is legitimate credence to these odds being mispriced and giving +EV to bettors everywhere. It also helps that Towns averaged more minutes per game (35.7) in these playoffs than anyone on the Pacers.
In the interest of complete transparency, I already risked one unit on this bet at +600 odds. Here’s to hoping that bet—and the bets of anyone who tails this—come good.
