The Thunder vs. Timberwolves Western Conference Finals is set to get underway on Tuesday, and there’s no player more important to his team’s success than Julius Randle.
The centerpiece in the summer haul from the New York Knicks for Karl-Anthony Towns, the Wolves are 30-6 in their last 36 games with Randle on the floor across the regular and postseason. He outplayed LeBron James and Draymond Green in the last two rounds and could be the mismatch that makes a +300 underdog Timberwolves team into a future Finals participant.
Months of preparation has all boiled down to a best-of-seven for a spot in the final series of the year. Let’s talk hoop.
Filling big shoes
Timberwolves general manager Tim Connelly took a major risk when he traded Towns to the Knicks for Randle, Donte DiVincenzo, Keita Bates-Diop, and a first-round pick (via the Detroit Pistons). Randle had a grotesque playoff resume and was coming off an injury, although the Knicks looked like a better team without him than they did with him.
Towns had also spent the entirety of his nine-year career with the Wolves and had just been the second-best player on their team that made the Western Conference Finals, where they fell in six games to the Dallas Mavericks.
A harsh adjustment period caused the Wolves to be just three games above .500 on Feb. 23, 61 games into the season. They’ve dazzled on both ends since then, and no player deserves more credit for that turnaround than Randle.
The 30-year-old averaged 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game on 50.9 percent shooting (34.5 percent from three) in the playoffs. He also held opponents to 43.1 percent shooting as the nearest defender, 3.6 points below the regular-season average and 2.1 points below the playoff average.
Moreover, the Timberwolves had a +8.8 net rating with Randle on the floor. His player impact estimate, which attributes a percentage of positive plays to one player, is also 12th in the playoffs, ahead of players such as Stephen Curry, Tyrese Haliburton, Evan Mobley, and Cade Cunningham.
The only players above him are:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo
- Jayson Tatum
- LeBron James
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- Nikola Jokic
- Anthony Edwards
- T.J. McConnell
- Donovan Mitchell
- Kawhi Leonard
- Alperen Sengun
- Luka Doncic
Timberwolves vs. Thunder key player: Julius Randle
It’s one thing to acknowledge Randle’s extreme improvement. It’s another to understand why it happened (and could continue).
The burly swingman shot 56.5 percent on 6.2 field goals resulting from 12.3 drives per game, fourth among forwards and centers in the playoffs. He also shot 75 percent on field goal attempts involving a paint touch, 60 percent on shots involving a post touch, and 100 percent on shots with an elbow touch.
While he’s been able to bully his way in the paint, he’s also stretched the floor. He shot 37.8 percent on above-the-break threes, which has forced opposing defenses to either honor his presence on the perimeter or suffer the consequences. Only Naz Reid among Timberwolves players shot a better percentage (48.4) on these types of shots.
The catch-22 here is that defenses can’t get too aggressive trailing Randle to the perimeter, or he’ll just bury his head and get to the rim. Oh, and he also shot 88.9 percent from the free-throw line in these playoffs.
Thought we were done there? Think again.
Randle has additionally been a truly exceptional pick-and-roll partner in these playoffs, averaging 1.50 points per possession on plays involving him as the roll man. He posted a 73.5 effective field goal percentage and just a 5.6 percent turnover rate on these possessions, making him second only to Mobley for the most effective big man in these situations.
More than one way to skin a cat
Randle’s scoring has been sensational, yes…But his playmaking has been arguably even more valuable.
15.2 percent of Randle’s passes were converted into assists. Kawhi Leonard (16.7 percent) was the only forward or big man averaging at least 20 minutes per game with a higher percentage, and Randle’s mark bested players such as Jalen Brunson, Curry, Doncic, Antetokounmpo, and even his superstar teammate, Edwards.
Randle also ranked 10th in assist points created per game despite being 29th in average passes.
The nuance there is what makes the Timberwolves vs. Thunder defensive matchup so interesting, particularly in how OKC wants to defend Randle. He won’t approach the game looking to be a full-time playmaker, but he’s proven to have sharp decision-making and an ability to punish out-of-position defenses.
Randle also has the size and strength to bully Chet Holmgren and any wing player who might get switched onto him in the post. That puts the onus on the Thunder to decide if they want to leave him one-on-one or tilt the defense in his direction.
The problem with showing more help to Randle is that will open up driving lanes for Edwards and the rest of the Timberwolves, who logged the second-most drives per game during the regular season. Minnesota also, despite struggling from three in the playoffs, excelled from range during the regular season and is more than capable of swinging the rock to find the open man on the back side of a tilted defense.
Julius Randle: Timberwolves vs. Thunder MVP?
bet365 sportsbook has Randle as a +1800 underdog to be named the conference finals MVP. His team would almost inevitably need to pull off the upset to put him in contention for this award, but there’s still real value on this line.
Jaylen Brown, normally second-fiddle to Jayson Tatum, won the Eastern Conference Finals MVP a year ago, and Jamal Murray was arguably the most important player on the Denver Nuggets two years ago in the Western Conference Finals, even if the award went to Jokic.
Randle’s path to dominance won’t be easy. The Thunder lowered their NBA-best 106.6 regular-season defensive rating to 101.6 in the playoffs and allowed the fourth-fewest points per game. He also managed just 11 points, six rebounds, and six assists in 27 minutes in his lone matchup with OKC, a 113-105 loss.
Saying that, Edwards also struggled with the Thunder. He only averaged 22.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 6.0 assists per game in four matchups, while Naz Reid (22.5 points), Jaden McDaniels (18.0 points), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (15.3 points), and Terrence Shannon Jr. (12.3 points) carried the scoring load to help split the season series at two games apiece.
The Thunder are favored to win four of the potential next seven games for a reason. Most eyes will be on Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards, but I will be glued to Julius Randle and his impact on the Timberwolves vs. Thunder conference finals.
