The 2025 NCAA Tournament is about to put the “Elite” in Elite Eight with two top-drawer duels on Saturday. My job is to break down the matchups and find the best bets for each.
Duke and Florida can both do their part to make this just the second March Madness ever in which all four one seeds advanced to the Final Four, joining the 2008 bracket that featured Memphis, UCLA, Kansas, and North Carolina.
There’s a strong precedent in place for both teams as favorites, which both of them are, went 6-1 against the spread in the Elite Eight and beyond in last year’s tourney. That was their best performance since 1981 but is par for the course with all of the chalk in this bracket.
Who will book an elusive ticket to the third weekend of March Madness play with an Elite Eight win, and what are the best bets for Saturday?
Here are my thoughts.
Texas Tech vs. Florida picks – March Madness Elite Eight bets
*All odds from FanDuel sportsbook*
Texas Tech preview and predictions
Who would’ve thought on Friday around 11:30 p.m. East Coast time that the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ season would live on into the Elite Eight?
TTU was down by 16 points with less than 10 minutes remaining. It responded by closing on a 27-11 run to force overtime and eventually shock the Arkansas Razorbacks, 85-83.
Arkansas had the game in the palm of its hands basically from the opening tip, making the final result one of the most painful in recent tournament history.
Texas Tech shot just 23-92 (25 percent) from three-point territory in this tournament. That’s significantly below their season standard of 37.9 percent. On the bright side, leading scorer JT Toppin has shown up as advertised, averaging 19 points and 10.7 rebounds on 69.2 percent shooting through three rounds.
The team is only 122nd in defensive rebound rate, which is one of the most commonly forgotten yet important metrics in playoff basketball. If teams shoot below 50 percent from the field as nearly every team does, then having the ability to close down a possession after one shot means that, mathematically speaking, the offensive team is always more likely to score zero points than it is two or three on a per-possession basis.
What the Red Raiders have going for them is their assist-to-turnover ratio, which is the fifth-best in the country. They don’t force many turnovers on defense and are the third-lowest ranked defensive team remaining in the tournament according to KenPom’s defensive ratings.
As impressive of a second-half showing as Tech just had, it has not beaten an AP top 25 team in this tournament and is still just 1-4 against ranked teams with the lone win coming on the road against Houston, 82-81.
Florida preview and predictions
The Florida Gators turned a two-point halftime lead to a 16-point win over the Maryland Terrapins in the Sweet 16 in a dominantly ironic flip of the namesake number. Six players scored at least 10 points, and the team shot 50 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from three.
Florida has been impressive but also left lots of meat on the bone in this tournament. They developed an uncharacteristic turnover problem in their last two games against UConn and Maryland, losing that battle 29-17 and committing 3.6 (33 percent) more per game than their season average.
Even with that issue persisting, the Gators won by 26 points, took down the defending back-to-back national champions, and then walloped arguably the best starting five in America.
22 of Florida’s 33 wins were by at least 15 points. They’re also an astonishing 27-10 (73 percent) against the spread, while Texas Tech is only 17-19 (47.2 percent).
One of Florida’s greatest assets is its activity. They move well without the ball, play tenacious defense, and are seventh in rebound rate, though that’s largely influenced by them being fourth in offensive rebound percentage to 128th in defensive rebound percentage.
The Gators’ relentless aggression is a major reason the over cashed in their last 10 games. That’s significant since, guess what, the over also cashed in Texas Tech’s last five contests.
There’s no doubt that the SEC runner-ups can look like the best team in the country when they’re in rhythm. The key for them will be getting off to a quick start instead of letting their opponent dictate the flow or hang around.
Elite Eight bets: Texas Tech vs. Florida
Texas Tech showed mental resolve and championship mettle to rally against Arkansas, though the Razorbacks mismanaged that game on the court and on the clipboard.
Florida is the much more balanced team in this matchup. They also just cruised past Maryland despite their best player and big man, Derik Queen, going for 27 points, meaning that they should be able to handle whatever Toppin has to throw at them.
Chomp chomp. Florida has been great against the spread all year and is starting at a golden opportunity to advance to the Final Four, which is why one of my best Elite Eight bets for Saturday is…
Texas Tech vs. Florida pick: Florida -6.5 (-110)
Alabama vs. Duke picks – March Madness Elite Eight bets
Alabama preview and predictions
“Hey, what’d you do on Thursday?”
“Oh, nothing much, just shoot the ball better than every team in the history of March Madness.”
That’s the conversation the Alabama Crimson Tide could have with… anyone… after they ripped the cords on 25 of 51 three-point attempts (49 percent) in a 113-88 win over the BYU Cougars in the Sweet 16.
To put their unfathomable display of long-range marksmanship into perspective, they would have beaten the Coogs who, again, scored 88 points, if they didn’t take a single two-point shot.
Thursday’s version of the Tide is the final evolution of an NBA-style offense, one that is infatuated with replicating the Steve Nash seven-second-or-less offense and using its drive-and-kick style to generate as many open three-point shots as possible.
Alabama ranks fourth in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rating. Its main issues have come on defense, but to their credit, they held their tournament opponents to 40.9 percent shooting from the field—1.4 percentage points lower than their season standard.
The Crimson Tide also made a noticeable shift in their approach to rebounding the basketball. They were always solid, but they won the battle of the boards against Saint Mary’s, the number-one rebounding team in the country, 41-36 in the Round of 32, and then against BYU, 37-36.
Grant Nelson’s return to the lineup is a major plus for Bama. He gives them 11.5 points and 7.6 rebounds per game and made a noticeably positive impact against BYU despite scoring just six points.
Meanwhile, senior guard and leading scorer Mark Sears snapped out of his slump in dramatic fashion. After making three threes in five games, he went 10-16 from downtown en route to 34 points and eight assists.
As important as Saturday’s matchup is, it’s not uncharted territory for the Tide. They played eight games against top-10 opponents, during which they went 4-4.
Duke preview and predictions
WOW, is that kid good.
Cooper Flagg was sensational the day he stepped onto campus in Durham, North Carolina. His improvement throughout the season was noticeable, and his performance in the Duke Blue Devils’ 100-93 Sweet 16 win over Arizona was the most impressive collegiate performance I have ever seen.
Flagg demonstrated his immense feel for the game, perfectly alternating between aggressive scoring, getting to his spots, pushing the ball in transition, patiently waiting for plays to develop, and getting the ball to his teammates when needed.
All of that resulted in a stat line never before seen in the NCAA Tournament: 30 points, seven assists, six rebounds, three blocks, and 60 percent three-point shooting.
Duke shot a whopping 60 percent from the field and 57.9 percent from three in that game, meaning they are at 54.1 percent from the field and 48.9 percent from three in the tournament overall.
It’s easy to get lost in Duke’s “unfair” offense, but their defense is also sublime. They held teams to 31 percent three-point shooting (36th) and 43.2 percent two-point efficiency (second).
The Devils also don’t give up second chances. They ranked 20th in defensive rebounding percentage and were eighth in overall rebound rate.
The Carolinians have a major advantage in this game because of their size. They will be allowed to be more aggressive on the perimeter and to take an extra half-step away from the basket to contest Bama’s three-point shooters knowing that they have the length to recover and size behind them to disrupt passes behind the initial defense.
Duke went 24-13 (64.9 percent) against the spread to Bama’s 21-15 (58.3 percent), albeit against easier competition. They also won 30 of their last 31 games, but it is worth noting that Arizona hung 93 points on their defense on 46/46/91 shooting splits.
Elite Eight bets: Alabama vs. Duke
Alabama will beat any team in the history of college basketball if it shoots the way it did in the Sweet 16, but banking on that is totally unfair. The question is if they can still get near the 40 percent range and make 15+ threes against a tall, long Duke defense, but one whose “weakness” is on the perimeter.
Grant Nelson and Clifford Omoruyi are going to have a tough time slowing down Flagg with the rhythm he’s in. Bama’s guards are also going to need to remain disciplined and fight through traffic or around screens to stay tight on Duke’s perimeter shooters despite all of their cuts and ball movement since Kon Kneuppel, Tyrese Proctor, and Sion James are all 40-percent-plus three-point shooters.
Duke has three projected top-10 picks in its starting lineup. Bama can and will get hot, but they don’t have their opponent’s size or level of talent. The second of my two best Elite Eight bets for Saturday is…
Alabama vs. Duke pick: Duke -6.5 (-115)
