March Madness is upon us, and it is time to fill out those brackets! What makes the tournament so fun is the chaos; any team can win on any given day.
Almost every year, there is a Cinderella team that makes its way to the Elite Eight or Final Four. This “Bracket Buster” pulls of a slew of upsets, stealing the hearts of Americans who almost certainly had never seen them play before.
As I look at this year’s bracket, I see multiple teams capable of making an unexpectedly deep run. This is not to say they all will, but picking the right Cinderella can give you some extra points in your brackets pool as you make your friends/family/coworkers say, “Wow, this person knows ball!”
For the sake of the exercise, let’s go ahead and define a Cinderella as any team seeded 10-16 that can make it to the Elite Eight. So, without further ado, here are the five most likely Cinderella’s in the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
UC San Diego
Perhaps the most popular Cinderella pick at the moment, the Tritons are a scorching-hot, deep-ball-chucking mid major making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history.
It has been two months to the day since UC San Diego last lost a basketball game. To put that in perspective, Luka Doncic was still two weeks away from becoming a Laker, eight NFL teams were still in Super Bowl contention, and Notre Dame still thought they had a chance to win the College Football Playoff championship.
The Tritons shoot threes at an extremely high rate, having shot 1,004 three-pointers in 34 games. That amounts to just under 30 attempts per game, and they hit them at a 36.6% rate. This amounts to a scorching 79.8 points per game.
Meanwhile, their first round opponent in Michigan is flying high after shockingly winning the Big Ten Championship. However, that may not bode well for them. In the last four years, only one Big Ten champion has made it to the second weekend of March Madness brackets. Trends would say the Wolverines could be due for a letdown against a blistering offense.
From there, UC San Diego’s path is relatively manageable. In the second round, they will likely face Texas A&M and coach Buzz Williams, who is known for having trouble in March. Should an upset happen to their one-seed, Auburn, who has to play either Louisville or Creighton, the path opens up wide for the Tritons.
Arkansas
It feels cheap to mention an SEC team coached by John Calipari, but it must be done. This is the rare 10 seed with similar talent as a 2 or 3 seed.
The Hogs had a horrific start to SEC play, dropping their first five games. Since then, though, they are 9-6, and that talent does seem to be coming together in some capacity. That talent comprises of three five-star and three four-star players. No other double-digit seed can say they have that.
Additionally, Arkansas is getting superstar freshman PG Boogie Fland back for the tournament, who has missed the last 15 games with a thumb injury. This should immediately give them a boost.
I expect Arkansas to make short work of a depleted and demoralized Kansas team in the first round. That will set up one final showdown between Calipari and St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino, who shared many a duel in their days at Kentucky and Louisville. Should Cal come out on top once again – he is 9-3 against Slick Rick in his career – the path is WIDE open for a deep run.
VCU
This might be the best Cinderella candidate of all. The VCU Rams, an 11-seed with an aggressive style of defense and a path through brackets to the Final Four. Sound familiar?
While it’s been 14 years since the Rams stole America’s hearts with their magical run to the Final Four, they are primed for another shot at it.
This VCU team does, however, look a bit different than 2011’s – but that’s a good thing! While the 2011 squad relied heavily on forcing turnovers through their “Havoc” defense, ramping up the full-court pressure for 40 minutes a game and catching teams by surprise, the 2025 team is chock full of real talent. No need for gimmicks here.
The Rams backcourt carries the scoring load with A-10 POY Max Shulga and former four-star Joe Bamisile each averaging 15.1 PPG. Philip Russell and Zeb Jackson also average 10+ points per contest. All four also average at least one steal per game.
Along with these guards, the Rams have three 6-10 forwards they can throw at you. Jack Clark can stretch the floor offensively, while Christian Fermin and Luke Bamgboye are both elite rim protectors. Bamgboye especially has come on as of late, and the freshman is averaging 2.2 blocks per game – fifth among tournament players.
This is a team that plays good, hard-nosed defense the old-fashioned way. They have the athletes to match whoever they play. Their questions lie in their inconsistent offense, but I believe their defense will keep them in every game they play.
Drake
You may be feeling burned by picking Drake in the past as a Cinderella just to see them fall in the First Round. It has happened three times in the last four years. But trust me when I say this Drake team is different and destined to make noise the your brackets.
For starters, this is the first Drake team ever to win 30 games. At 30-3, this is most likely the best team in school history.
They also have a new coach this time around. Ben McCollum is wrapping up his first season, and he has done exactly what he has done his entire career: win. Prior to Drake, he spent 15 seasons at his alma mater, Northwest Missouri State. There, he won four NCAA Division II National Championships, seven Conference Tournament Championships and 11 Regular Season Conference Championships.
All the man does is win. And he did so at Drake this season with a brand new roster.
Following the coaching change, almost every player from the 28-7 Bulldogs team left. McCollum had no one.
So, what did he do? He brought in half of his team from NWMSU that had won so many games together, including PG Bennett Stirtz. This guy might be the best kept secret in college basketball.
Stirtz is McCollum’s anchor, averaging 19 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds and 2 steals per game on 49/39/80 splits. The kid can ball.
This is a group that has played a lot of ball together, and they have a coach with eons of big tournament experience. They start with a very winnable game against Missouri before likely facing an injured Texas Tech. They are someone to keep an eye on.
High Point
Much like UCSD, the Panthers are dancing for the first time in school history. And while Big South teams are typically a mainstay on the 15/16 seed line, these guys are 29-5 and have earned a 13 seed in brackets nationwide.
What sets them apart is their depth. High Point has 10 players averaging 13 minutes or more. If a couple of guys aren’t hitting shots, they can just throw two more at you. No biggie.
All six of their rotational guards shoot at least 31% from three. Three of their forwards do too. This team can score points in a hurry by chucking up three-pointers left and right.
I also love their first round matchup. Purdue is a team that is struggling, dropping six of their last nine games. Not very nice for them. The brunt of their scoring comes from three players: Trey Kaufman-Renn, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer.
What we have here is a top-heavy team going against an evenly balanced team. This will put so much pressure on Purdue’s Big Three. If Loyer goes Harry Houdini and disappears – which he is known to do from time to time – the Boilermakers will be in trouble.
From there, the Panthers can get hot shooting and be able to last through the grind of the March Madness brackets with their depth.
