If life imitates art, then the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves first-round series in the NBA playoffs is a van Gogh.
Luka Doncic will take on a squad of hard-nosed brutes less than one year after he eliminated them in the Western Conference Finals. JJ Redick will also make his playoff coaching debut against one of the most resilient bunches in the Association, while Anthony Edwards has the chance to seize the title of “best player alive” from the NBA ruler known as “The King,” LeBron James.
This is the first-round NBA playoffs series that the basketball world so desperately wanted but might not have realized it deserved.
Of the burning questions that exist ahead of the matchup, the two that stand out is how the pieces will be arranged on the chess board and which cacophonic style will overpower the other.
Buckle up, it’s time for some Lakers vs. Timberwolves playoff talk.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves odds
*Odds from FanDuel sportsbook current as of 4/14/25.*
|
Team |
Series Spread |
Series Price |
| Los Angeles Lakers | -1.5 (+124) | -172 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +1.5 (-152) | +144 |
A tailor-made matchup
The Timberwolves have the best three-man assembly to guard the LeBron, Doncic, and Austin Reave trio of any team this side of the Boston Celtics.
Edwards knows Austin Reaves from their time during the FIBA World Cup and has the speed, strength, and intensity to nullify him. Jaden McDaniels has the length, agility, and defensive instincts to guard Doncic as well as nearly anyone in the world. Julius Randle has the power and girth to hold LeBron out of the post and force him to be a full-time perimeter player.
Checking those three boxes immediately gives the Wolves a better start than most teams in the league. However, everything takes a turn when considering the role of Rudy Gobert.
A four-time Defensive Player of the Year, Gobert allowed 0.99 points per isolation possession and 0.89 points per possession when switched onto the pick-and-roll ball-handler and had a 107.6 individual defensive rating. For context, that rating would rank second among all teams, only behind the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Those numbers fell off a cliff when the Wolves met the Dallas Mavericks in the conference finals.
NBA.com’s tracking data prevents users from filtering possession types by team and opponent, but Gobert’s defensive rating surged to 117.6, and he was often targeted as a switch defender… something he probably remembers all too well.
“Motherf*cker! You can’t f*cking guard me!”
Luka so disrespectful for this LMAO Gobert gotta swing on him next game 😭
— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) May 25, 2024
How do the Lakers exploit the Timberwolves?
Doncic had a tough time against the Timberwolves this season, averaging 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 5.0 assists in three games, one of which he exited after 16 minutes. He also had 21 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists on 30 percent shooting in a nine-point win in his only game against them as a member of the Lakers.
the Wolves also went 2-2 against the Lakers, winning both home and losing both road games. They also did a nice job on LeBron James, holding him to 19.7 points, 10 rebounds, and 4.7 assists on average, though he went for 33, 17, and six in their last meeting, the only one with Doncic at his hip.
Reaves averaged 17.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists and had 23 points, six rebounds, and five assists in their last matchup.
JJ Redick’s crew has done a tremendous job with its spacing over the last month and with a healthy Doncic. Although they are not the most gifted distance shooting team, they ranked third in the NBA and shot 39.4 from beyond the arc since the beginning of March.
Their discipline and individual playmaking will be tested against this defense, which allowed the seventh-lowest three-point percentage (35.3) in the sport.
The Lakers stars’ performances against the Wolves prove that Minnesota are better equipped to defend the Lakers than anyone in the West, but their lone head-to-head matchup with the big three intact also shows that the purple and gold might simply have too many strengths for one defense to mask.
Anthony Edwards’ attack
Now that we’ve covered the Lakers’ offense and how it might fare against the T-Wolves’ defense, what about the complete opposite?
Edwards finished the year with more made threes than any player in the league. He also has one of the most explosive first steps in the entire sport and the strength to shrug off defenders who are a step late and try to use their body to throw him off.
What does that mean? Lots of attacks on Doncic and Reaves.
The latter gave up a very bleh 1.00 points per isolation possession and when guarding the pick-and-roll ball-handler.
Despite his reputation, the former allowed 0.96 points per possession defending the pick-and-roll ball-handler and 0.82 points per isolation possession. Those numbers were also at 1.01 and 0.66 during the 2023-24 postseason.
50.3 percent of Edwards’ field goal attempts this season were from three-point land. He shot 39.5 percent on threes.
In three games against the Lakers and excluding their opening-night showdown, only 40 percent of his shots were from three, and he shot just 27.8 percent on those attempts.
Why did this occur?
JJ Redick had very distinct principles in place to make life difficult for Edwards from beyond the arc. He mixed in blitzes with bringing the pick-and-roll defender to the level and trapping Edwards, or having one of his best defenders, Dorian Finney-Smith, chase him into a very narrow drop.
This plan worked well since facilitating as a pick-and-roll ball-handler is one of the biggest weaknesses in Edwards’ game.
It also serves to explain why Mike Conley played 26 and 29 minutes in the Wolves’ last two matchups with the Lakers compared to his 24.7 average for the season—to ease the creative burden on Edwards in the pick-and-roll.
Lakers vs Timberwolves: Players to watch
As is the case in any playoff series, there are several players who are flying under the radar and who will play huge roles in the Lakers vs. Timberwolves bout.
One of my picks for the Lakers is Dorian Finney-Smith. His impact goes beyond the traditional box score, and he ranks third in the league (among qualified players) in on/off point differential.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Lakers are 17.1 points better per 100 possessions outside of garbage time with Finney-Smith on the court than off of it. That only trails Nikola Jokic and Kevin Huerter’s Chicago Bulls tenure.
Finney-Smith is not only Redick’s best defender, but he shot 39.8 percent from distance and made 2.7 threes per game on 45.7 shooting in April.
On the other side, my pick is the aforementioned Conley. I expect him to get an increased amount of minutes because of his creativity against stout defenses, which the Lakers have proven to have when engaged, and also because of the Lakers’ small-ball ability.
There were many concerns that the Lakers wouldn’t survive without a starting-level big man following the Anthony Davis trade for Doncic. Those quickly fell by the wayside as a few of their matchups against notable big men from that point on saw them hold Jokic to 12 points on seven attempts, Karl-Anthony Towns to 12 points and 14 rebounds in overtime, and Alperen Sengun to 14 points, seven rebounds, and six assists.
Gobert is not a player who needs the ball in his hands to succeed, but it still feels unlikely that he will average the same 33.2 minutes he did during the regular season or have an overwhelming offensive impact.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves pick
Okay, time to put pen to paper.
I like the Lakers in this series. I could write another 2,000 words on the roles of Gabe Vincent, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid, and more, but I ultimately settled on the Lakers’ late-game scoring ability as the difference in this series.
The Timberwolves were 23rd in clutch net rating (-7.3) and 17th (-5.7) over the last two months. They also had a 5-7 record during their recent clutch-time situations despite going 18-8 overall.
The Lakers weren’t much better, but they had the excuse of dealing with injuries and playing a brutal stretch of 10 games in 14 days. They were also 13th (+3.8) in clutch rating for the year. The Doncic-led Mavericks also had a +18.6 net rating in clutch time in last year’s conference finals against the Timberwolves.
Make no mistake about it, these games will be close. Redick noted in his postgame press conference after Sunday’s inconsequential loss to the Portland Trail Blazers that the Wolves were one of four teams in the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating.
Cleaning the Glass also revealed that the Wolves had the fourth-best point differential against teams with top-10 point differentials, with the Lakers coming in just behind in fifth.
Still, the playoffs are about getting important buckets just as much as they are about getting stops. No team in the league can generate as many open looks as the Lakers when LeBron and Doncic are at their best, and I like them to win in 5-6 games. I’ll go on record and say five.
Lakers vs. Timberwolves pick: Lakers -1.5 (+124) per FanDuel sportsbook
