March Madness. Two words with antithetical etymologies and connotations that, when conjoined, transfer their meaning to unforgettable upset teams, dubious dark horses, and monumental moments that are permanently etched in college basketball lore.
The 2025 NCAA Tournament is still the same game, just outfitted with new players.
Freshman sensation Cooper Flagg remains the cosmic question mark hanging over the newly-released bracket as he fights to get back on the court from an ankle injury. The Houston Cougars are out to finally win their first national championship after decades of pounding on the door, and unassuming underdogs such as Robert Morris and Bryant are out to put an end to bracket-fillers’ fun.
The annual 68-team tournament that is descending upon the basketball universe is arguably the least predictable sporting event in America, but that’s not going to stop me from trying my hand at picking March Madness dark horses, upsets, early flame-outs, and bracket heroes.
Here’s my best attempt at NCAA Tournament 2025 prognostication. Don’t come crying when everything goes wrong (it probably will).
UGA had a chance… but not anymore
There’s something to be said for losing to quality opponents, and the Bulldogs had a lot to say. 10 of their 12 losses were to ranked teams, they beat St. John’s, and were only two points from taking down then- No. 1 Auburn.
Mike White is an intelligent coach with one of the tallest teams in the tournament. However, he’ll likely have to face Gonzaga and Houston in his first two games, and UGA’s March Madness upset prospects simply don’t account for the difference in talent in those games.
Houston won’t face a team better than Gonzaga until Duke
Speaking of Houston and Gonzaga, the Cougars aren’t going to find it easy getting to what they hope will be a national championship appearance. Zaga, an eighth seed, is ninth in KenPom’s net rankings and was one of the “unluckiest” teams in the country.
The Bulldogs made nine straight Sweet 16s and just won the West Coast Conference Tournament. They have frontcourt size, a break-you-down-off-the-dribble playmaker in Ryan Nembhard, and are excellent with their ball security and free-throw efficiency, both of which are magnified in March Madness.
UNC will quiet the noise
The basketball world was fairly upset to see North Carolina in the March Madness bracket. I’m going to leave the debates in the past and focus on the future, which should be filled with a win for the Tar Heels.
Assuming they get past San Diego State in the First Four, UNC will have momentum from winning a game just two days before they run into a beatable Ole Miss squad. UNC is wildly experienced and has a terrific lead guard in RJ Davis, while Ole Miss depends on an undersized and ground-bound guard, Sean Pedulla, to carry its offense.
Nique Clifford will become immortalized in March Madness history
The 6-foot-6 Clifford is in a great spot to be this year’s Markquis Nowell. He scored 36, 25, 26, and 24 points in his last four games after averaging 19 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game on 50.7 percent shooting (39.8 percent from three) for the year.
Colorado State starts its tournament with winnable games against Memphis, who it’s favored to beat as a 12 seed, Maryland, and one of Florida, UConn, Oklahoma, or Norfolk State. Clifford is as hot as it gets in college basketball and had a terrific year, making him a player to watch and CSU a strong March Madness upset pick.
UC San Diego or Yale will beat Auburn
UC San Diego was the best team in the country against the spread and made the tournament in its first year of eligibility. More than half of their shot attempts are from three, where they shot 36.6 percent, and they are the only team in the country to rank in the top 10 in offensive and defensive turnover percentage.
Yale packs the interior and forces opponents to live and die by the three. They also shot 38.8 percent from three, have a strong assist-to-turnover ratio, and are 13th in rebound rate in part because they don’t give up cheap interior shots.
Auburn had a fantastic season but entered the tournament with three losses in its last four games. It also won just one game by single digits over the last two months which, combined with its tendency to get bogged down late against resilient teams, could indicate a lack of comfort in clutch scenarios.
St. John’s will be out by the second weekend
Listen, the rise of the Red Storm is one of the best stories in college basketball. But no team that ranks 66th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and shoots 30.4 percent from three and 68.9 percent from the charity stripe can be reasonably counted on to make a deep run, no matter who its coach is.
The Big East champs will face Kansas or Arkansas in the second round and likely Texas Tech in the Sweet 16, all of whom have the potential to take them down. Rick Pitino’s crew is 40 minutes of a team not feeling the physical effects of their tough defense away from going down.
Cooper Flagg won’t play until the Sweet 16
I don’t care what Jon Scheyer said about Flagg’s improved health on Selection Sunday. It would be nice to have him back in action in the Round of 64, but let’s not kid ourselves here.
Duke is going to err on the side of caution with their superstar and the projected first pick in the NBA Draft. They will beat American or Mount Saint Mary’s without him and proved in winning the ACC Tournament they can probably beat Mississippi State and Baylor shorthanded. Ankle injuries don’t go away in less than a week, and Flagg likely won’t come back at 100%.
