NBA Playoff Betting: Picks to Pay the Bills for Lakers, Celtics, and More

And so begins the journey of NBA playoff betting begins with picks for the first round, futures odds, series prices, and everything in between.

For full transparency, I am going to keep a running log of all of my playoff bets right here at thehostileenvironment.com. That includes game picks and player props which will be coming to the website throughout the playoffs.

Tail me throughout my NBA playoff betting journey to your heart’s content, or roast me when I end up on Freezing Cold Takes. Just make sure you’re coming back!

Okay, enough dancing. Let’s put pen to paper and dive into my best NBA playoff bets and favorite odds for the first round, futures, and more.  

NBA playoff betting: Futures picks, dark horses, and first-round odds

Nuggets-Clippers over 5.5 games (-170) at FanDuel – 2 units 

Since the NBA first-round playoff series were changed to best-of-sevens in 2002-03, 27 of 44 (61.4 percent) of 4-vs.-5 series went at least six games. That translates to a no-vig probability of -158 or, using traditional vig, odds of about -170—exactly the price we’re getting here.

Recent precedent has also been strong for teams extending this series, potentially due to the increase in talent and parity across the league. Both 4-vs.-5 series went at least six games last year, as did six of the last eight 4-vs.-5 matchups across the last four postseasons. 

What’s more, FanDuel nearly has this series as a pick’em. Their oddsmakers gave the Denver Nuggets +100 and the Los Angeles Clippers -118 odds to win the series, per the numbers on Wednesday, April 16. That indicates a close series, which is directly correlated with a long series.

Both the Nuggets and Clippers finished with top-10 ratings, and they were ninth and 10th in net rating against teams with top-10 net ratings. The Nuggets have the best player in the world, Nikola Jokic, but the Clippers have a resurgent Kawhi Leonard and an impressive James Harden.

Any way you want to slice it, this series should be CLOSE! That’s why Nuggets vs. Clippers over 5.5 games is one of my best NBA playoff betting picks for the first round.

Pistons +2.5 games (-144) vs. Knicks at FanDuel – 2 units

Believe it or not, 3-vs.-6 first-round series almost went at least six games as frequently as the 4-vs.5 series did. They came up just one short, as 26 of 44 (59.1 percent) matchups saw at least a Game Six. That translates to no-vig odds of -145 and odds of about -158 using a standard vig.

In other words, we’re already beating the expected value.

Five of the last six 3-vs.-6 matchups went at least six games, including both from the 2023-24 playoffs. 

The Detroit Pistons also went 3-1 in the season series against the New York Knicks. That included a 115-106 win in Game 80 on Thursday, April 10, during which Cade Cunningham went for 36 points and eight assists on 66.7 percent shooting.

The Pistons don’t have exceptional talent aside from Cunningham and a raw Ausar Thompson, but they are a tough-nosed group that plays with grit and tenacity. The Knicks often earn a leg up with these qualities and their willingness to make hustle plays, but the Pistons will prevent them from making that an advantage.

The Pistons also have the perimeter length to make life uncomfortable for Jalen Brunson, who only averaged 21 points per game since he returned from his ankle injury. 

The Pistons can absolutely play with the Pistons. Two wins and this becomes one of the easiest NBA playoff betting picks to cash online.

Pistons series line (+340) vs. Knicks at FanDuel

Allow me to pick up where I left off.

The Pistons were only 8-18 against teams with top-10 point differentials, but they won the season series against the Knicks. Their only head-to-head loss was in the second week of the season, and their 62.6 true shooting percentage during the season series would’ve led the league.

As great as the Knicks are on the boards, they’re ninth in rebound rate to Detroit’s fifth. They also had worse offensive and defensive numbers in the paint and scored fewer second-chance points per game.

NY had the advantage late in games, but that will go out the window if the potential Clutch Player of the Year, Brunson, isn’t at his best, which he hasn’t been since he returned from his injury.

There’s something that just seems off with the Knicks, as evidenced by them going 0-9 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Boston Celtics, and Cleveland Cavaliers. Detroit is playing with house money, and there’s a lot of value here.

Lakers -1.5 games (+115) vs. Timberwolves at DraftKings

When Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves are humming, they have the best offense in the NBA. And however their roster might look on paper, they’ve turned in top-drawer defensive performances more times than not when they matched up with the best teams and players.

The Minnesota Timberwolves were one of four teams to finish in the top 10 in offensive and defensive rating. The other three finished with at least 60 wins.

That said, the Los Angeles Lakers were 19-13 with a +1.3 net rating (fifth) against teams with top-10 point differentials. Those also improved to 10-4 with a +5.9 net rating (third) after Doncic made his team debut.

The only matchup between the two teams post-Doncic trade ended in a 111-102 victory for the purple and gold, although it’s important to mention that Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert did not feature.

One of the biggest reasons to back the Lakers is the job they’ve done on Anthony Edwards. Excluding their opening-night encounter, Ant averaged 16.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in three matchups.

But that’s not what matters the most—that would be that only 40 percent of his field goal attempts were from three, and he shot 27.8 percent on those attempts. That’s a stark contrast to his season average with 50.4 percent of his attempts coming from three and a 39.5 percent conversation rate on those attempts.

What’s the takeaway? It’s that the Lakers made Edwards uncomfortable, just like they did when they held Nikola Jokic to 12 points on seven shots, Kevin Durant and Devin Booker to 40 combined points on 35.3 percent shooting, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 26 points with zero free-throw attempts, just to name a few instances in recent months.

Minnesota also still has not fixed its late-game issues and went 20-26 with a -8.4 net rating (23rd) in clutch situations. The Lakers were 23-16 with a +3.8 rating (13th). 

Lakers to win the West (+600) at DraftKings

Let’s examine this playoff bracket.

If we’re to assume the Lakers beat the Timberwolves (who would have tons of value if they win that series), they would play either an inexperienced and inferior Houston Rockets team or a Golden State Warriors squad that had been playing playoff-type basketball for months and would be drained after a physical series.

Oddsmakers suspect that the Lakers would then match up with the Thunder, who their new-look team beat by 27 points and then had a fourth-quarter lead over two when Doncic was improperly ejected from the game just two days later. 

JJ Redick’s tactical acumen will be tested, but he’s passed nearly every test with flying colors thus far. LeBron James will also have the benefit of getting to spend more on-court time resting than he could for nearly all of his career thanks to Doncic’s offensive share. 

I love these futures odds, and they’re why the Lakers are one of my best NBA playoff picks.

Lakers to win the NBA Finals (+1500) at FanDuel

It’s hard to imagine the Lakers playing anyone other than the Cleveland Cavaliers or Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals, assuming they get there. We’d be playing with house money at that point thanks to the six-to-one profit from their odds to win the Western Conference, but it still presents an interesting hedge opportunity…

Celtics to win the Finals (+190) at bet365

If there’s one team that can play small-ball with and better than the Lakers, it’s the Celtics. They don’t have the same level of individual creation, but they have unmatched defensive versatility and a philosophy that consistently generates efficient offense. 

Boston came to life over the final month of the season, winning 19 of their last 22 games. They also went 15-7 with a league-best 7.9 net rating against teams with top-10 point differentials and have the experience of going on a Finals run last year.

Their biggest opponent will inevitably be the Cavaliers, with whom they split their season series 2-2. 

However, it’s tough to imagine Cleveland going from one total playoff series win as a group to winning three straight en route to the NBA Finals, especially considering Boston has the best player, more versatility, and more size at most positions on the court.

There hasn’t been a repeat NBA champion since the Kevin Durant iteration of the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018, which means the Celtics would have to defy recent history to cash this futures bet.

However, this is simply a hedge, just like I mentioned above. I am confident the Celtics will get to the Finals and can’t find a better pick than the Lakers, which makes this the final selection for my best NBA playoff betting picks leading into Game One on Saturday. 

NBA playoff bets and picks recap

• Nuggets-Clippers over 5.5 games (-170) at FanDuel – 2 units
• Pistons +2.5 games (-144) vs. Knicks at FanDuel – 2 units
• Pistons series line (+340) vs. Knicks at FanDuel
• Lakers -1.5 games (+115) vs. Timberwolves at DraftKings
• Lakers to win the West (+600) at DraftKings
• Lakers to win the NBA Finals (+1500) at FanDuel
• Celtics to win the Finals (+190) at bet365

*Disclaimer: all picks are predictions and not guarantees. Follow responsible gambling practices.*