Even the bravest commanders call for reinforcements in times of need.
These Commanders, from Washington, were one of the NFL’s final four less than six months ago. They simultaneously broke their 19-year playoff win drought, found their franchise quarterback, and restored belief to a fan base that had retreated far from the spotlight.
Times have quickly changed. The front office appears to have the nation’s capital in position to contend for the long term, and they might never get a better chance to take a swing than the one they have right now.
The Commanders haven’t had a first-team All-Pro defensive player since linebacker Wilber Marshall in 1992. They came close last year when both Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu received second-team All-Pro honors, but the void still remains for a true blue-chipper.
That’s why T.J. Watt’s uncertain status in Pittsburgh is of great importance to the burgundy and gold.
The 2021 Defensive Player of the Year and Pro-Bowler in seven straight seasons is entering the final year of his $112 million deal. He’s due to make $21.1 million in 2025, and the $28 million average annual value of his contract is only seventh among all EDGE players.
“I’m optimistic we’re going to get things done, because we got two sides that want to get things done,” Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin said after last Thursday’s minicamp practice, per NFL insider Ian Rapoport. “When that’s going to occur… I do not know.”
Watt finished 2024 with 11.5 sacks, tied for eighth among all players, and six forced fumbles, which led the league. He also managed two fumble recoveries and 61 total tackles and was Pro Football Focus’ top-graded run defender.
His knack for getting to the football is arguably the biggest reason the Steelers ranked third in takeaways per game and sixth in points allowed per game over the last five years. His 17-game average during those years included 16.9 sacks and 4.1 forced fumbles, both elite numbers.
What separates Watt from other defenders is his ability to influence games with impact plays. The Steelers went 49-27-1 with him on the field during the same five-year period, four times reaching the playoffs.
His ability to affect the game is exactly what the Commanders want from their defensive players — and what they largely missed out on last year.
“We didn’t produce the ball like I wanted to,” Commanders Defensive Coordinator Joe Whitt Jr. said before a June 4 OTA session. “We didn’t play the run well enough, and I thought that we would have. And then… closing games out, it wasn’t the way that I was anticipating.”
If there’s a quality that Watt has in spades, it’s knowing how to close the deal. He hasn’t finished outside of the top four in Defensive Player of the Year voting since 2018, barring a 2022 campaign during which he suffered a Grade 3 pectoral tear in the season opener.
Watt, 30, also has the best type of ability: availability. He played in 121 of 132 (91.7 percent) possible games since he entered the league in 2017 and appeared in all 17 games each of the last two seasons.
Having a game-changing player using a Wide 9 technique — an alignment in which the EDGE in a 4-3 front lines up a couple of yards outside of the tight end — would completely transform the Commanders’ defense. They’d have an easier time keeping opposing quarterbacks inside the pocket, coming off a year in which they ranked 16th in rushing yards allowed per game to opposing QBs, and could generate more pressure while committing fewer bodies to the pass-rush.
Luvu led all players in blitz reps at 123, 13 (11.8 percent) ahead of second-place Andrew Van Ginkel. That’s a clear sign that the defense needed additional support to get to the quarterback, and it caused them to be light in the secondary. Although the team finished eighth in sack percentage, it was also 22nd in EPA allowed per dropback.
That’s a far cry from the Watt’s current squad, who blitzed linebacker Patrick Queen a team-high 59 times. That was just 48 percent of Luvu’s total, yet the Steelers’ defense was eighth in EPA allowed per dropback.
The assumption is still that Watt would like to remain in the Steel City. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported optimism about Watt agreeing to a new deal, though affirmed his minicamp absence sends a message.
“I think the Steelers feel comfortable that they’ll be able to work out something with T.J. Watt,” Schefter said last Thursday. “He’s making a statement by staying away from mandatory minicamp.”
As optimistic as the Steelers might be, Commanders General Manager Adam Peters has the chance to tempt their front office with an eye-catching offer.
To help analyze potential trade packages, overthecap.com provides a tool called the Fitzgerald-Spielberger Evaluation. This formula equates players, positional value, and draft picks to points and average contract values to determine which teams would win hypothetical trades.
The Commanders could hit $34.9 million in annual value, slightly below Watt’s potential asking price, by trading Daron Payne, a 2027 first-round pick and a 2026 fifth-round pick.
Adding a 2027 fourth-round selection would get the Commanders to $38.9 million in projected value, just about $1 million below Myles Garrett’s record-setting $40 million annual average.
The deal would also help both teams clean up their books. The Commanders could wash their hands of Payne’s four-year, $90 million deal, which includes a potential out for $11.2 million against the cap in 2026 and a full cap hit of $28 million.
Payne has mostly underwhelmed since he signed the extension that, at the time, made him the second highest-paid defensive tackle in the NFL behind Aaron Donald. After posting 11.5 sacks in 2022, he only produced four in each of the last two years, while Washington’s defensive line struggled to contain the run.
Despite that, the Commanders’ coaching staff recently sang Payne’s praises for his leadership and intensity during the offseason program.
“I walked past [Payne] today and said, ‘Man, you’ve had a remarkable offseason,’” Quinn said, per The Athletic’s Ben Standig. “I felt that way through the drill work, through the skill [work]. You just see something that jumps out differently. . . . I felt that from him coming into this offseason, and I’ve certainly been impressed by what I’ve seen so far.”
On the other side, the Steelers could create a bit of breathing space by moving on from Watt. They’re only $700,000 away from having the ninth-highest salary cap spending in 2025.
It’s worth noting that the Steelers also have the third-most cap space in 2026, but they need to replace lots of expiring contracts. They already got a jump-start on the post-Watt era with rookie and first-round selection Derrick Harmon, who was confirmed to be the team’s starting left defensive end.
The Commanders would be playing a dangerous game if they continued to part ways with precious draft capital, a chunk of which they already sacrificed to trade for Marshon Lattimore, Laremy Tunsil, and Deebo Samuel. That said, they’re in their championship window with a top-flight quarterback on a rookie contract and were a takeaway or two from potentially going to the biggest game in football last year.
Elite players like Watt seldom come available on the trade market. The Commanders are unlikely to find someone of his caliber if they’re consistently picking 20th or later, and they should view this as a rare opportunity to acquire one of the best athletes in the sport.
If Washington’s front office is as aggressive as its offense was on fourth down a year ago, an offer will be presented to Pittsburgh’s hierarchy.
