I don’t know if Gwen Stefani and Akon wrote their 2006 smash hit “The Sweet Escape” about the March Madness Sweet 16, but I do know that I have betting picks to share for every Thursday matchup.
Realistically, that song was probably written about going to the beach. Oh well, their loss.
12 of KenPom’s top 16 teams in net rating entering March Madness qualified for the Sweet 16, meaning the picks and matchups are as competitive as they can be. But that only means that there is more room for sharps to shine.
Will we cut through the books with a blade’s edge or end up a big, fat square?
Here are my best March Madness betting picks for the Sweet 16 action on Thursday.
March Madness picks: Best bets for the Sweet 16 on Thursday
*All odds from FanDuel sportsbook*
BYU vs. Alabama Sweet 16 picks
Round of 32 favorites are 41-13 (75.9 percent) outright against Round of 32 underdogs in the Sweet 16. That stat screams Alabama but is slightly disingenuous for this particular matchup.
BYU, in my eyes, was not an underdog against Wisconsin. For full transparency, I had BYU in my Final Four when I filled out my bracket and held the belief that Cooper Flagg wouldn’t be 100 percent for the tournament, which appears to be incorrect.
The Cougars don’t mind opening up the court and playing at pace or slowing down to operate in the halfcourt. They scored 85.5 points per game during the first week, shooting 50 percent from the field against VCU’s elite defense and 49.2 percent in a game against Wisconsin they controlled the entire time, despite the 91-89 final score.
As efficient as the Coogs have been, this isn’t a flash in the pan. They shot 48.2 percent from the field and 37.4 percent from three for the year as a whole.
Meanwhile, Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country and wants nothing more than to turn this matchup into a track meet. They averaged 85 points in the tournament and just hung 80 on Saint Mary’s, who allowed the fifth-fewest points per game for the year.
The Crimson Tide also won the rebounding battle despite Saint Mary’s averaging the highest rebound rate in the country.
While BYU is a poor 99th in defensive efficiency, Alabama is a much worse 163rd. Only Kentucky and Purdue were worse among the teams remaining in the bracket.
The explosive offenses and electrifying paces have resulted in this game receiving a projected over/under of 175.5 points, 19 more than any other Sweet 16 matchup. That’s significant because Nate Oats-coached teams are 3-0 against the spread and covered by 5.5 points per game in tournament games with totals of at least 170 points.
However, Oats’ squads are 30-42 ATS as a favorite when given at least four days of rest between games.
Bama played a game against Kentucky with a projected total of 181.5 in the regular season on Feb. 22. That game ended 96-83 and narrowly cashed the under with 179 total points.
My belief is that BYU has a great chance to win this game. I can’t guarantee that I won’t put a portion of my account balance on them on the spread or moneyline, depending on how risky I’m feeling.
However, unders have been profitable in recent tournaments, and the four-day layover between games will take both teams out of any shooting momentum they found during the first couple of games.
So, one of my favorite Sweet 16 picks for the Thursday opener is…
BYU vs. Alabama pick: Under 175.5 points (-110)
Maryland vs. Florida Sweet 16 bets
Wait a minute, where’s Colorado State? The gather step doesn’t exist in college!
Through a stroke of good fortune, the referees allowed Maryland to bring the best starting five in the nation into the second week of action. Everyone in the lineup averaged at least 12 points per game, led by freshman center Derik Queen (16.2 ppg, 9.1 rpg).
Maryland and Texas Tech were the biggest pre-season underdogs left in the field at 100-to-1. This is the first time since 2009 that a team with longer odds hasn’t made it this far.
There’s a case to be made that the best is yet to be seen from the Terps, whether or not they deserve to be in the Sweet 16. Their 41.7 field goal percentage in the tournament is 5.3 points lower than their season standard (47.2).
At the same time, their 41.7 tournament three-point percentage is 4.5 points higher than their season average (37.2). They also committed six turnovers per game, 4.3 fewer than their 10.3 average.
What’s the takeaway here? It’s that if Maryland can finish at the rim at the level it did all year, it could easily gain another 10 points on its final score. However, a let-down in three-point shooting would see its firepower significantly reduced.
There’s also cause for concern related to their reserves. They have one of the worst bench units in America and only got two points off the bench against Colorado State, and their starters will likely get worn down as their tournament foray continues.
Florida is 0-2 against the spread in the tournament, while coach Todd Golden is 0-4 ATS in his tournament career dating back to his time at San Francisco. Only the 1997 Arizona squad won the national championship after starting the bracket 0-2 ATS.
Teams are also 2-5 ATS since 2019 when entering the Sweet 16 on a two-game losing streak on the spread.
That said, Florida showed unexpected maturity in eliminating defending back-to-back national champions UConn in the Round of 32. They overcame a second-half deficit and shot 46 percent from the field and 47.4 percent from three, while the Huskies were held to 37.5 percent shooting and 27.6 percent from downtown.
The Gators are also tenacious on both ends and eighth in rebound rate, while Maryland is just 74th.
The 6.5-point spread is the second-highest of all possible Sweet 16 Thursday picks. Maryland is 10-2 ATS over its last 12 games and has a real upside here.
Maryland vs. Florida pick: Maryland +6.5 (-102)
Arizona vs. Duke March Madness picks
There’s an intangible cloud hanging over this matchup—and it’s that Caleb Love hates Duke.
In nine matchups across three years at North Carolina and two at Arizona, Love averaged 15.9 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.3 rebounds and went 5-4 straight-up. However, he shot 33 percent from the field in their last eight and 21.8 percent from three-point land in their last seven matchups, both of which make for some serious “what the heck is he doing out there?” commentary.
Love only put up eight points on 23.1 percent shooting when Duke beat Arizona 69-55 on Nov. 22, 2024. However, he dropped 28 on 55 percent shooting against them in the Final Four while at North Carolina in 2022.
Arizona is a physical team with solid frontcourt size and guards who love to finish through traffic. That’s a major reason why they shot 47.3 percent from the field and 78.4 percent at the free throw line but only 32.4 from three.
This marks Arizona’s fourth-largest underdog spread in tournament history during the seeding era. They went 2-1 ATS in the other three games, the most recent of which was also against Duke, when they covered a 9.5-point line in 2011.
The Wildcats covered the spread against Akron in the first round but came up a half-point short against Oregon, whom they beat by four points as 4.5-point favorites in the Round of 32.
‘Zona is going to have to dig into its physicality to hang with Duke, the most complete team in the bracket. They acquitted themselves well in the Big 12 Tournament Final against Houston, during which they established themselves as the aggressors and held a halftime lead before ultimately losing, 72-64.
Duke started March Madness as a 4-to-1 or shorter favorite in five tournaments before this one, which they opened at +320. They made the championship game in three of them.
Jon Scheyer is 6-2 ATS in the tournament and 17-7 ATS against non-conference opponents as a favorite of at least six points. However, he is still fairly inexperienced as a 37-year-old coach in his third season.
Freshman sensation Cooper Flagg needs no introduction, and Kon Kneuppel is a projected lottery pick. However, Aussie Tyrese Proctor is the man to watch, having made at least six threes in three straight games and led the Blue Devils with 25 points on 7-8 three-point shooting in their last outing.
As I mentioned, this game is going to come down to physical will. Both teams are in the top 10 in rebound rate, but while Duke is fourth in KenPom’s defensive rating, Arizona is 28th. They also let Oregon shoot 47.1 percent from the field in their last outing.
Expect this one to come down to the wire—not the outright winner, but the spread winner. Most importantly, keep an eye on the battle at the three-point line, since Duke was 23rd to Arizona’s 155th in three-point percentage allowed.
Arizona is still a live dog here but will need to come out of the gates hot instead of going down 21-4 like it did against Oregon.
(This is the Sweet 16 betting pick I’m the least certain of).
Arizona vs. Duke pick: Arizona +9.5 (-114)
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech NCAA Tournament picks
Arkansas is the highest seed remaining in the tournament. Highest in a bad way. Yes, it’s confusing.
The Razorbacks, along with their fellow SEC compatriots at Ole Miss, were the only teams to win outright as underdogs in the Round of 64 and Round of 32. They’re once again dogs against the Red Raiders of the Big 12.
A win would make Arkansas the 16th team since 1985 to win three straight games in the first three rounds all as an underdog. John Calipari in his career is also 7-3-1 ATS in 11 tournament games as an underdog.
Arkansas only made two threes and shot a deplorable 10.5 percent from three against St. John’s. However, it held the Red Storm to 28 percent shooting from the field and 9.1 percent from three.
The SEC representatives are only 8-43 (18.6 percent) from three thus far. That’s after they shot 33.3 percent for the year which, while not impressive, is close to twice as productive as they have been in bracket play.
In what could prove to be a major plus, Adou Thiero (15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg) practiced with the team and could be cleared for the first time since Feb. 22. Boogie Fland also played in both tournament games, while former Final Four participant Johnell Davis and talented transfer D.J. Wagner held down the fort.
On the other side, Texas Tech, who is fifth in KenPom’s offensive rating, will get to go at Arkansas’ 17th-ranked defense. Sophomore forward JT Toppin paces them in scoring (18.1 per game) and rebounding (9.3 per game), while Elijah Hawkins (9.4 ppg, 6.5 apg) is the leading playmaker.
Despite being a three-seed, the Red Raiders are 1-4 against ranked opponents. That lone win, however, was a big one, an 82-81 road victory over Houston.
TTU is 1-6 ATS at neutral venues with the lone cover coming in the Round of 32 against Drake. They chased the over in four straight and in six of their last seven games, while coach Grant McCasland, during his time at North Texas and Texas Tech, was 4-0-1 to the over in tournament games.
The Big 12 boys also have a couple of precedent-based stats on their side. Round of 32 favorites are 41-13 (75.9 percent) SU against Round of 32 underdogs, and favorites are 32-10 (76.2 percent) SU against teams who covered by at least eight points in the Round of 32.
Arkansas’ stout three-point defense (31.6 percent allowed) will be put to the test in this matchup, seeing as the favorites made 37.9 percent of their triples, although they have been abysmal in the tournament (15-60, 25 percent).
It’s also worth noting that Texas Tech took 46 three-pointers against UNC Wilmington to just 14 against Drake.
These numbers, frankly, are all over the place, making this one of the hardest Sweet 16 picks for Thursday in March Madness 2025. I ultimately settled on the Razorbacks playing well and getting their leading scorer back, while Texas Tech hasn’t executed the way it’s used to and underperformed in key moments.
Arkansas vs. Texas Tech pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-104)
