The Washington Commanders experienced enough pain to know that the sun is now shining on their franchise.
Jayden Daniels’ spectacular rookie campaign elevated a team that finished 4-13 just one year before to a 12-5 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship Game. Daniels received 48 of 49 first-place votes for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and earned league-wide respect for his late-game heroics and steady nature.
Despite greatly exceeding expectations, he was not a perfect player – nor should perfection have been expected of a 24-year-old.
Commanders fans believe that the available room for improvement, combined with several key roster upgrades, will make their beloved quarterback even better in 2025. However, he’ll have to grapple with the “sophomore slump” that has ruined many young talents who appeared to be on their way to superstardom.
“As a competitor, you’re always trying to find little ways to get better,” Daniels said recently on Jon Gruden’s Gruden Goes Long YouTube series. “For me, last year was last year. That’s great, but it’s a whole new year now.
“I still got to go out there, I’ve got to prove myself to my teammates, the organization, each and every day that I’m getting better. When it’s time to prepare and when those games come, I’ve got to know that, hey, how can I eliminate some tendencies? That’s the big thing.”
11 quarterbacks have won the Offensive Rookie of the Year trophy since 2003, including Daniels. Six made the Pro Bowl as rookies, but only two, Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert, were invited back the following year.
The latest victim of the “sophomore slump” was the 2023 award winner and Daniels’ close friend, C.J. Stroud.
After having one of the most efficient rookie seasons in league history, the Ohio State product saw his completion percentage drop from 63.9 to 63.2 percent, his yards per game fall from 273.9 to 219.2, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio plummet from 23:5 to 20:12.
There’s a credible argument that Stroud was a victim of circumstance. His offensive line couldn’t protect him, and his top three receivers suffered multiple injuries, leaving him to throw to backups with free rushers in his face.
However you rationalize it, the precedent still exists: star rookie quarterbacks struggle to repeat their success in their second season.
One of the biggest reasons for this trend is NFL coaches adjusting to quarterbacks’ tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses. A full offseason gives the time to prepare for skill sets and preferences they were ill-equipped to handle the year before.
Former Washington quarterback Robert Griffin III is one of the biggest examples of how quickly the wheels can fall off for what looked like a future MVP candidate.
The 2011 Heisman Trophy winner took the league by storm as the leader of one of the NFL’s first predominantly zone-read offenses, posting a line of 3,200 passing yards, 815 rushing yards, 27 total touchdowns and only five interceptions, all while leading his team to a 10-6 record.
What seemed like a promising career for Griffin was gone in a flash. During his second season, he regressed to 3,203 passing yards, 489 rushing yards, 16 total touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while Washington went 3-13.
Griffin III never played more than nine games in a season again. Even when he was on the field, he was just a shadow of the dazzling talent he was as a rookie.
Daniels is a much more refined passer than Griffin III ever was. He’s also demonstrated better leadership and cognitive processing, which should make him more resistant to a devastating fall-off.
That said, Daniels and the coaching staff were also outliers because of their infatuation with hurry-up offense. Whether or not teams will scheme up ways to combat their pace, just like they did Griffin III’s zone read, remains to be seen.
“I think it’s always a week-to-week kind of game plan,” Commanders Offensive Coordinator Kliff Kingsbury said during the team’s Week 14 bye last year. “If there’s certain things you think you can do matchup-wise, attack one or the other… I think philosophically… we want to play no-huddle.”
The Commanders used a no-huddle tempo on about 61 percent of their plays last year. This created several strategic advantages for a rookie quarterback who was both calm and intelligent enough to handle the frenetic nature.
First, defenses had to stay in fairly simple coverages and personnel groups due to the lack of time for communication and substitutions. They were also limited in their ability to disguise coverage, again, because of the stress that was placed on their communication.
Keeping the same defensive linemen on the field also allowed the Commanders’ offensive line to build a head of steam against a tired front, which gave Daniels more time in the pocket.
An extraordinary amount of time would need to be spent installing exotic defensive coverages suitable for no-huddle tempo. The juice simply isn’t worth the squeeze for teams that aren’t division rivals or expected playoff opponents of the Commanders.
Washington is also more equipped offensively than it was in 2024. Laremy Tunsil, Josh Conerly Jr., and Deebo Samuel give Kingsbury a plethora of new avenues to attack, and rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt could become the explosive running back they desperately needed.
Ultimately, the onus still falls on Daniels.
There’s no great comparison for the 6-foot-4 star, though he’s most frequently likened to two-time MVP Lamar Jackson. The first of Jackson’s MVPs came in his second season, during which he showed enormous development as a passer and racked up 4,333 total yards, 43 total touchdowns and six interceptions.
Daniels was leaps and bounds ahead of Jackson as a rookie but still needs to match his sophomore development. An easy way to accomplish that would be to develop a mastery of intermediate middle-of-the-field throws, which was one of the few areas in which he wasn’t dominant.
The young QB clearly has the arm talent to make those throws, he just needs to hang in the pocket for an extra beat instead of relying on his legs to guarantee a short or medium gain.
As great as Daniels is, his development cannot be independent of the team’s trajectory. That’s why the additions of Tunsil and Conerly Jr. could be extremely impactful if they give him more time and confidence to throw the ball from between the hashes.
Daniels’ road to improvement won’t be an easy one. He’ll go against the top six and nine of the top 11 teams in EPA allowed per dropback in 2024 — but if there’s anything that he showed as a rookie, it’s that he’s up for the challenge.
